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An Excerpt from The
Chasm Companion:
A
Back-to-Basics Approach for Creating Winning Market Strategies
Introduction
During
the last decade of the last century right through the Millennium
celebration, we in high technology were feeling our oats, down to
the last kernel. For a while, it appeared as if the celebration
would be never ending. Technology-based companies flourished and
the high-tech start-up, fledglings created as a result of the unprecedented
amount of investment capital that had been generated from almost
ten years of global business expansion, seemed to have their initial
public offering scheduled by the dozen. Each of the IPOs redeemed
the equity that had been lavished on virtually anyone savvy enough-or
lucky enough-to be associated with each new company's birth. The
center of this modern day gold rush was California's Silicon Valley-not
only a place but also a state of mind as was noted by one
of its longtime residents. People who cashed out of their options
now put their newfound wealth into Northern California's housing
market. People were now bidding up the price of virtually any house
on the market by offering literally hundreds of thousands of dollars
over a seller's asking price. Style and good taste, often only a
minor distraction to the acquisitiveness of many Valley residents,
might command still higher prices but was certainly no guarantee
of either. The prevailing wisdom seemed to be that wealth attainment
could and should be a scheduled event, duly noted in one's handheld
electronic organizer along with the weekly massage and the "play
dates" organized for the kids.
A sense
of optimism and entitlement also seemed to flourish and there was
no greater source than that which emanated from the companies that
were exploiting the Internet "revolution." The New Age of
the online information superhighway had finally arrived.
The poster child of this new age was a new class of company simply
and collectively referred to as the dot.com. The dot.com
was a magical business model touted as the driver and the exemplar
of the New Economy, an economic ecosystem where information
products or those accessed through new information technology. The
prevailing wisdom of the time asserted that the rules governing
the development of markets for New Economy products and services
would be radically different. New Economy companies were unparalleled
models of business efficiency that would lay waste to Old Economy
business models that clearly had outlived much of their usefulness.
Authors and consultants everywhere wove a prophesy of doom for many
of the Fortune 500. "Many of them simply don't 'get it'" asserted
numerous self-anointed New Economy pundits. They opined that a new
generation-the Internet generation-was now being spawned, born to
point their browsers in an unceasing quest to learn, shop, and connect
with others online. The industrial and financial dinosaurs that
had roamed the earth since the industrial revolution, now laden
with inefficiencies would soon be disintermediated, an uncertain
fate that did not sound appealing. Those clever enough to exploit
this paradigm shift would make tons of money as a result
of consumers' relentless desire to point and click.
"We're
going to use our first mover advantage and build brand early to
aggregate and quickly monetize eyeballs," enthused one young, Armani-clad
dot.com CEO clearly impressed not only with this phrase but also
with himself for having said it during yet another "must attend"
Internet conference that feted not only the latest crop of Internet-based
companies but also those that "got it"-so noted by being asked to
participate in various panel discussions on stage-and those that
didn't, currently relegated to the audience but eager nonetheless
to "get it" as well. Adding to the popular lexicon, another celebrated
idea of the time was the concept of Internet time, a new,
completely subjective measure that described the pace was pegged
at which Internet businesses evolved over their old economy brethren.
Digitization, cyberspace, stickiness, "walled gardens," and a variety
of other metaphors stormed into our everyday speech-the new patois
of the Internet generation.
Then
a rather annoying thing happened. In March 17, 2000 the music stopped.
The metaphorical New Economy balloon filled with Allan Greenspan's
irrational exuberance finally burst. The equity markets, abused
as never before and fed up with all the hype, concluded that many
New Economy companies were of the species Ideus Stupidus.
And what of monetizing eyeballs, building brand early, and filing
S1's after the second round of funding and well before product beta
testing and actual revenue generation? What of Internet time? Such
time had come and gone.
Many
New Economy companies were much more adept at marketing a good story
then a good product; more adept at going public than staying that
way. Meanwhile, the once vanquished Fortune 500 comprised of mostly
old economy, old guard companies had caught up to the newcomers
by using the same technologies and processes, but underpinned by
proven value propositions, strong brands, established value chains
and seasoned management. The victors now appear to be the vanquished.
And the technological mass hallucination that we all experienced
over the past several years now turns out, as it were, to be a kind
of a bummer.
How's
Your Memory?
Now
it seems like we are back to a language that all of us understand.
Some, understandably, are more vocal and shrill than others.
"Wall
Street doesn't understand our space. We need to reposition our products
and the company-and we need to do it now!"
"We need to rethink our business plan or we're not going to get
our next round of funding!"
"Our market cap has declined by two-thirds! We need develop a new
marketing plan for the next board meeting."
"We need to train our executives [formerly our middle managers]
and our middle managers [formerly our new hires] how to develop
and execute more effective marketing and sales strategies."
All
the preceding quotes are real, jotted down in conversations with
various executive staffs over the past two years. It's time once
again for the business equivalent of heavy lifting.
While
it may be the most challenging of business climates, what has fundamentally
changed? Besides the net worth of many in this industry, not a lot.
For those of you just joining us, it's called a business cycle.
As depressing as that may seem, for many of us, it is back to business
as usual, i.e. creating, fielding and communicating a demonstrably
valuable product or service and doing so in a compelling, competitive
way. During all the fun of the last decade, some of you may have
forgotten all the details about doing this rather difficult work.
For others, the memory of the last technology recession more may
stir coincident memories of your senior prom, cramming for that
organic chemistry final, or your first job interview as a second
year business school student.
Coping
with an economic downturn is always tough, but many organizations
face some particularly thorny challenges. After an unprecedented
run of uninterrupted business growth, many management teams must
now think about and confront issues that many had only previously
read about. Slowing demand for products and services, intense competition
and surly, now profoundly disillusioned shareholders demanding performance
have wrought havoc with many companies and their previously unassailable
business models, of which many were so proud. A widening gap between
what customers and investors now demand, and what companies can
actually deliver has once again placed an extraordinary premium
on understanding how markets develop and are likely to develop going
forward.
Dare
I say, is it time to return to the basics?
Well,
let's take a deep breath and try to put this all in a more positive
light. The New York Yankees don't forget how to play baseball during
the off-season. But they still report to training camp in spring.
Similarly, we in high tech have been playing a game where winning
for many of us, was simply the norm. Welcome to a new season. While
many may feel that the current environment forces them to postpone
their scheduled wealth attainment, there are many others who are
more insightful, seeing the high-tech industry for what it is, and
always has been: the most fascinating, volatile, vexing and ultimately
uncompromising business in the world. And unlike Wall Street, we
actually make things!
If
your are still intrigued by the possibilities of high technology
and the wealth that lies therein-and fear not, the good times will
roll again-welcome back. The party may be over for now, but the
basics are still the basics.
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